Rhome, who makes a living understanding these complexities, said, “I cannot deduce my personal risk from a hurricane from the cone alone.” You need to take in watches and warnings. He calls the cone the “executive summary” but you can’t stop there. “Just looking at the cone or track models is like looking at the cover of a book and assuming you’ve read the book,” Rhome said. Forty miles north, at Coconut Grove, surge reached 9 feet. In a real-world example, 1992’s Category 5 Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Homestead at high tide. If it did, Boca Raton, 45 miles north and well outside the cone, would get blasted by hurricane-force wind and the storm surge that comes with it. If Miami were at the northern edge of the cone, Miami could get the eye.
Let’s look at the east coast of Florida under similar circumstances. Storm surge warnings were issued for an area from Tampa south to Everglades National Park. NOAAHurricane Ian’s track forecast cone shifted to the east in the 48 hours before landfall.
Naples, nearly 40 miles from the eye, was buried under five to eight feet of surge. With Ian, hurricane force winds extended 45 miles on either side of the eye at landfall.
The destructive muscle of a storm can reach well beyond the cone - it doesn’t tell us how far out the hurricane force winds will extend, or where and how deep storm surge will be. The center of the storm has a 2-in-3 chance of falling within the cone, Molleda said. But the cone indicates the area where the eye of the storm is more likely to pass, based on the success of the NHC’s last five years of predictions. It’s easy to assume that anything outside the cone is safe. Cone addictionĪnother issue, said Rhome and Molleda, is our cone addiction. He points to 2022’s Hurricane Fiona, which was only a Category 1 storm when it hit Puerto Rico, but dumped 32 inches of rain. Nor is it telling you anything about the rest of the hazards that come with the storm, namely the water-based hazards, which are historically the biggest killers,” he said. But it’s not telling you whether or not those winds are going to impact you. It’s telling you the peak winds anywhere within the storm. “There was way too much emphasis on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Rhome also worried that the public focuses too much on whether a storm is Category 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, a wind-speed rating system known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. If you’re in a warning zone, it means that condition is expected to occur somewhere in there, but not everywhere within the warning. “They’re the end result of all the work we do.” We are looking at every available piece of information, and then make a decision” about watches and warnings. “That is our primary risk communication tool. “We have to pay attention to watches and warnings,” Molleda said. Watches come out 48 hours before conditions arrive, and warnings 36 hours before conditions arrive.Īs for the spaghetti models, Rhome and Robert Molleda, his peer at the National Weather Service, incorporate those models into their decisions to issue watches and warnings.
Those products are the watches and warnings that the NHC puts out. “We need to help people shift from just using the cone to using our newer risk-based products.” “As a community we are far too focused on models,” Rhome said. They show where the eye will likely travel, but not the limit of the storm’s fury. The cones they’re referring to are the “track forecast cones” we all obsess over when a storm heads our way. “The season last year had similar lessons from past years, but it really was quite acute during 2022,” said Rhome in reference to Ian’s and Nicole’s behavior.īoth the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service are in lockstep in their messaging for 2023: Don’t rely on categories, calendars and cones. Who among us doesn’t gaze at spaghetti models, or check on the boundaries of a cone, or poo-poo a Category 1 storm, or assume hurricane season is over after Halloween?Ģ022 challenged all those habits. damages of $1 billion.” Stop focusing on the cone, category and calendar It’s November, they don’t come here.’ Another case of - don’t get stuck in the conventional wisdoms … Although it was late, it certainly packed a decent punch, with U.S. “I hear it all the time - ‘It’s October, they don’t come here. “A lot of people get enamored with the calendar, and fixate on when hurricanes can and can’t come to the area,” Rhome said. Stone crabs, gator heads and tourism: Rustic fishing towns bounce back after Ian
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